Limitation of the Total Output of Beer. While it is probable that the effects of the increased Excise duty on beer, of the blackout, and of air attack will combine to keep production during the second year of war substantially lower than it has been for the past twelve months, it is, for reasons already set out in this memorandum, exceedingly difficult to forecast the trend in production with any degree of exactness. An increase in the general level of wages, or a decrease in the intensity of night bombing might well effect a very considerable change in the situation.